the 4th star

“You owe me $150,000, Kelly!”

Hamilton Tiger-cats (8-9) vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers (7-11)
Blue Canad Inns Stadium
Blue noon

1. True or False: Bombers boosters say getting blown out in Montreal last week was the best thing to happen to this club, as it resets the focus heading into the biggest game of the year.
False. People point to Week 8 for proof of a Bomber bounce-back following a beatdown. That was the week they handed it to the BC Lions 37-10. The week before that, Winnipeg was on the receiving end of a 39-12 spanking — at home — against Montreal. That’s an example of where pride worked itself into the story perfectly. An example of that not happening was in Week 12. That week, the Big Blue lost a truly uninspired 33-12 decision to that same Alouettes squad, a week after having their doors blown off 55-10 by Saskatchewan in the Banjo Bowl. Yeah, but both games were against Montreal, they said. True, but in Week 13, coming off that same loss to the Als, the Bombers barely hung on to beat Toronto. Five points barely.

2. True or false: With Hamilton already in the playoffs, Winnipeg has all the motivation.
False. While the Bombers will have a sense of urgency to their game — they have to win to get in — let’s not forget that the Ticats are playing for a lucrative home post season date of their own. You want to talk about feel-good stories in the CFL this year? Forget about the middling Bombers overcoming their head coach and making the post season. Hamilton has suffered through some three-win seasons and hasn’t been on the league radar since Tony Champion. And that’s hard to do, considering it’s an eight-team league. Let’s not forget about Kevin Glenn. He’s coming back to Winnipeg for the first time since being cut by quarterback developer Mike Kelly. Think he’s not motivated to prove the Bombers, and their fans, wrong? Forget about Damon Allen Michael Bishop. Glenn is the X-factor in this game.

3. True or false: There’s been a lot of talk on how the Bombers know exactly how to get to Glenn. They’ve seen it all before, they say. This would apply to Glenn, too, wouldn’t it?
True. Glenn can watch the same film on the Bombers defence, and with two corners (Jon Hefney and Jovon Johnson) coming off ankle injuries, he might have a little more room to work with in the secondary. The key for the Bombers will be to get pressure on him. If they don’t, and Glenn is seeing the field well, it could be a long day for Winnipeg fans. Let’s not forget that Glenn is no rookie in this league, either. Sure, he had some bad days in a Bomber uniform and invented Bishop-quality quarterbacking before Bishop even arrived in River City, but he’s more than capable. And as mentioned, he has more motivation than anyone. This game is all about him. No question.

4. True or false: Winnipeg Blue Bombers fans are the best fans in the world.
False. C’mon. A win or else game, with the forecast looking beautiful for a November afternoon, and the club is still 2,000 tickets short as of Friday night? Throw in all the storylines and ‘revenge’ scenarios, and it’s not a sell-out yet? What about the fact that some tickets were on sale at discount prices? And let’s not forget that the team has had TWO WEEKS to sell this game. AND the fact there are dud early games in the NFL. Not to sound too negative here, but fuck. Even if it does reach capacity before kick-off, that’s not great, is it? Maybe it speaks to the Mike Kelly factor. I know, I know, let’s not go there again…

5. True or false: Speak of the devil — Kelly’s job is on the line here.
True, but only if the Bombers get blown out. A home playoff date, I think, saves Kelly job for another training camp, but if the club loses, some serious questions need to be asked by the Bombers board of directors. He’s destroyed the connection with the fan, both common and total, and with the building situation as it is, what with no sign of the club leaving the crumbing Polo Park location in the near future, they need to give people a reason to come down there. The place is a dump. Why would people go there to watch a .500 club and a coach who doesn’t appreciate them and contradicts himself at every turn? It would be irresponsible for the board to not look at this objectively. The potential financial gains through the positive PR of making a change could outweigh the cost of paying another coach to not coach the club. That’s bottom line thinking, right there.

Prediction*
Hey. Why not? It’s the biggest game of the year. I like the Bombers by eight.

*It should be pointed out the last time I officially predicted a CFL game was the 2007 Grey Cup. I was in Toronto to watch the Manitoba Bisons win the Vanier Cup, not to see the Bombers take on Saskatchewan. In fact, I changed my flight after the Vanier to head back to Winnipeg Saturday night. There were six people on the flight from Toronto to Winnipeg! Anyway, I was staying with Kirk Penton and Paul Friesen, who were sharing a room. They were writing a million things at once, and Friesen was putting together a predictions page. I was an actual sports reporter at the time, so he asked for my pick. Sure, I said, 8-4 for the Riders. He laughed, and asked for my real pick. Eight-four, Riders. I told him I was more interested in predicting the point differential then the final score. He threatened me by saying he was going to put my ridiculous prediction in the paper, but I didn’t blink. Final score: Saskatchewan 23, Winnipeg 19. Four point difference. Word up.